01036nam a22001097a 4500008004100000022001400041245016800055260003700223300001800260440005500278500059300333190323b        xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d  a0304-405X  aExtrapolation and bubbles / by Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, Andrei ShleifercNicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, Andrei Shleifer  aAmsterdambElseviercAugust 2018  aPages 203-227  aJournal of Financial Economicsv129 (2)x0304-405X  aAbstract
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals—an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation—and “waver” over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles, that bubbles will be accompanied by high trading volume, and that volume increases with past asset returns. We present empirical evidence that bears on some of the model’s distinctive predictions.